March 9, 2009

March 8, 2009

Tim Leigh’s Weekend Market Report
Hoff & Leigh, Inc.
4445 Northpark Drive, Suite 200
Colorado Springs, CO 80907
March 8, 2009



Attached is our complete listing of all properties for sale in Colorado Springs, based on property type - office, industrial and condo. This is the most complete listing that we are aware of. It’s our goal to provide this information, updated weekly. We develop these lists by basic research and cross-checking data points from the PPCIE, local broker's individual web sites, The Turner Book and any other public information domain we can find.

You are receiving this information because, at some point, you asked or a friend referred your name to be included in our e-mail Insider’s List. If you no longer wish to receive this information, send an e-mail reply to me (tim@hoffleigh.com) and ask to be removed. Alternatively, if you know someone who could benefit from the receipt of this information, forward this e-mail to them, and suggest they contact us, so we can consider adding them to our exclusive list.

All Market Average Office Building Sale Price PSF = $112.37 (DOWN from $112.96 last week.)
We are currently tracking 110 office buildings for sale.
This is 1,167,082 square feet, which represents a total market value of $131,147,900.

All Market Average Industrial Building Sale Price PSF = $75.81 (UP from $75.24 last week.)
We are currently tracking 96 industrial buildings for sale.
This is 1,329,929 square feet, which represents a total market value of $100,817,606.

Interesting Property for Sale or Lease & Updates:

6208 Lehman Drive: This is the showcase property at the corner of Lehman & Academy. It needs some love. Nearly 25,000 sf on 3 floors; it’s priced at $78.20 psf ($1,900,000) with some room. Clean-it-up; install an elevator; hit a home-run. http://www.hoffleigh.com/PropertyDetails.aspx?ID=85


500 West Bijou Street: We just listed the Boutte Photography Studio, which is a very nice office or mixed-use building, for sale. It’s a former church that could be redeployed as a church. The property could be a very interesting office or destination-retail facility. It boasts high ceilings, classrooms, kitchen, and way-to-much parking! Conveniently located at I-25 & Bijou Street, it’s only 2 minutes from the downtown core; all the shopping & eating and the new Olympic Headquarters (presuming the city figures out the financing!). The property has 4,548 sf on the main floor; 2,922 sf on the 2nd floor and a (very functional) 4,458 sf basement. We have just lowered the price. The Seller would consider a lease. You can see the property at our web site:
http://www.hoffleigh.com/PropertyDetails.aspx?ID=385


13570 Meadowgrass: New Office-Condo project at I-25 & Northgate. Our prices are the lowest in the north I-25 corridor. If you are looking for an office-condo on the north-end with unbelievable views of the Air Force Academy & the Front Range this is the ticket. http://www.hoffleigh.com/PropertyDetails.aspx?ID=132

View a complete list at www.HoffLeigh.com

Want to know more? Tim@HoffLeigh.com
719-630-2277
Tim’s Market Notes:

Consumption: A common concept in economics (and in Colorado Springs - health) which gives rise to derived other concepts such as consumer debt (and brain damage). It’s the total spending in an economy; it’s the part of disposable income that doesn’t go into savings. If you’ve consumed too much, you suffer from the classic symptoms of consumption; chronic cough, fever, night sweats and weight loss.

I’ve calculated that since 1797, our country’s experienced 18 business cycle recessions or depressions. They come around every 11 years. Their average length but obviously, not severity, has decreased dramatically with modern financial-system (mis)management. They’ve lasted as long (23 years) as the 1st Great Depression (also known as “the long depression”) in 1893, to as short as 6 months (the dot.com recession). How long will this current down-turn last? It’s hard to say. But if history says anything, it’s that we’ll rebound and in about 11 years we’ll have another one.

I wish I had had this knowledge before. I would have been wiser with my investments. I wouldn’t have gotten caught-up in the housing & real estate speculative frenzy where we all knew “it’s different this time” and, don’t worry, prices will never come-down. I would have realized that all speculation-bubbles burst. I would have learned that there’s always been bad banking leading to government intervention (I know, Bill, there are a few good bankers, too); and I would have realized that there has always been and always will be fraud, corruption & deceit.

Recessions & Depressions - here’s a short list:

Panic of 1796 – bubble in land speculation
Panic of 1819 – overspeculation; bank failures
Panic of 1837 – currency bubble burst; bank failures
Panic of 1857 – speculation bubble burst; financial institution failure
Panic of 1873 – (The Long Depression) – overspeculation; Chicago fire; equine influenza (I kid you not!)
This is actually pretty interesting – horses got so sick that they couldn’t use them. This resulted in the loss of the movement of goods & services and ultimately, the decline in the production of goods & services.)
Panic of 1893 – overspeculation in railroads; bank failures
Panic of 1907 – stock market collapse; bank failures
The Depression – still trying to figure out the root cause; speculative bubble burst;
. . . and on and on and on it goes. . .

DON’T READ ANY FURTHER IF SMALL KIDS ARE IN THE ROOM. If you haven’t seen a scary movie lately, look at the “money supply” graph I’ve included as an attachment. It’s a graph showing the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis’ adjusted monetary base. From Friday’s Gazette, “The graph shows the money supply’s gradual ascent starting in the early 20th century until now. In 2008, the graph shoots straight up; (That’s straight-up in the air, Bob!), revealing a 1 year inflation of the cash supply that equals its growth over the past 100 years!” I’ll pause and let that sink it. Take a deep breath. I know.


I’ve been predicting a strong inflationary cycle as the means to solve our current financial woes; Buffet predicted the same in his letter to his investors. Haag Sherman, (he manages over $8 Billion), in a recent Barron’s article said “The US government’s balance sheet looks increasingly like that of a Third World country. American’s debt-to-GDP is more than 100%; (including the nationalized debt of the 2 mortgage giants, Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac). Budget deficits of $1Trillion (that’s a (1) followed by 12 zeros) are projected for years. He went on to say, “As the US government prints more money to address “the crisis”, investors will realize they’re being paid in diminished currency.” That’s inflation.

What’s a brother to do? Bill Bonner, author of 2 New York Times best-sellers, (Financial Reckoning Day & Empire of Debt) advises to “Stay in investments that you won’t want to sell in the next 10 years; investments with income that’s reliable . . . houses with good tenants; nothing fancy. The world is moving away from fancy.”

I now know I’m brilliant. All these really smart guys are saying what I’ve been saying. . . “She’ll be riding 6 white horses when she comes; she’ll be riding 6 white horses when she comes. . .

I’ve been advocating a conservative investment strategy for some time. In fact, I’m now advocating the purchase of low leverage, single family homes on the theory that you can get long-term, fixed-rate debt at low rates & bet against the government. And for the foreseeable future, it will be “all about the debt”. We know the government’s going to screw up, so the bet is assured.

The stock market’s continued sell-off and the general continuing decline in most asset values shows the economy’s still in the process of “price discovery” and attests to our collective sentiment that the government’s currently-proposed solutions are evidence of a screw-up-in-process. By the way, I love that term – “price discovery.” It means we haven’t found the bottom yet. However; good times or bad, people need a place to live and so, while smart money is sitting on the side-lines, I can make a pretty compelling case for buying single family homes now.

Long-term, there’ll be fewer home-owners & more home-renters. Hornstein, in his book “A Nation of Realtors” said that home ownership became a “promoted” social goal (in the early 1900’s) as a means for real estate agents, (who at the time were known as Curbstoners, because “he was a man with his office in his hat!” – now we have technology and nothing changes), to sell houses, generate income & thereby become “respected” members of the “middle class.” That need & those distinctions are no longer relevant. You no longer “need” to own a home to be considered middle class (and as for income, well, we all know - Realtors don’t make any money anymore, anyway!). In the future, renting will be a more acceptable norm. And because I’m such a touchy-feely kind-of-guy, I keep an expression to validate my Tenants feelings of inferiority; “Don’t worry about building equity; pay rent and live like a king!” and it’s true. Since there is no longer any social stigma, tenants can live-large on less.

I’m a pretty inquisitive kind of guy, so when I read all this stuff about inflation I naturally ask “If the increase in the money supply shows inflation, why haven’t we felt it?” Again from the Gazette, “As the money supply has grown the economy has contracted. This means the value of cash can only plummet. Why has this incredible boost in the money supply had no impact?” According to Mason University professor, Todd Zywicki, “Presumably, because the velocity of money has remained low, and people and banks are hoarding money rather than spending, borrowing or lending it.” He goes on to say, “Assuming velocity rises again, we may be looking at an inflationary spiral like we’ve never seen before.” There are pundits and economists who say prices have risen dramatically over the past 12 months but because inflation is so insidious, we don’t immediately notice it. Have you priced a pack of Oreo’s lately?

I had lunch with a friend of mine last week. He’s the president of a local bank. He told me that on the one hand, regulators (TARP) tell him to lend; on the other hand, regulators (OCC) tell him to get his balance sheet in order, which is a fancy way of saying “don’t lend.” The regulator who says “don’t lend” carries a bigger stick; so they don’t.

Back to consumption; the problem with our economy is that most people don’t have any money to buy things. They spent it. So now, in a word, the government’s problem is correctly stated, “How do we get money to the consumer class so they can do their job?” By the way, the consumers make the producers wealthy. And by the way, producers have money to buy stuff because they don’t.

OK, this is a real estate column. What’ the relevance to all of this? The moral of the story is that we likely all screwed up and called our net worth net worth. We didn’t realize the illusory and vapid nature of net worth. But the good news is, and I always like to end on a positive note, there will be inflation and we will all be saved.

Want to know more? Contact me at Tim@HoffLeigh.com

Here’s what we do:
Property Leasing; sales; property management; Buyer or Tenant Representation.
How can we help you today? Call us. We’re honest & trust-worthy and doggone it, people like us.


Concierge Services:
We offer property management & maintenance concierge services. We have vendors for most property needs. It’s like having a full-time property manager at a fraction of the cost. If you’d like to know more about this service; how you can become involved; how you become a “recommended vendor” call me: 719-630-2277. Our growing list of recommended vendors is attached above.

Focus on Charity

Russ Noblett asked me to mention his favorite charity this week. It’s the 18th Wine Festival of Colorado Springs benefiting the Fine Arts Center. From his e-mail: The 18th Annual Wine Festival of Colorado Springs benefiting the Fine Arts Center will be held on March 13 & 14, 2009. The Festival’s theme is “Women in Wine” and includes three Seminars, a Grand Tasting at the Broadmoor and Winemaker dinner at the Garden of the Gods Club.

Details and tickets are available at: http://www.csfineartscenter.org/WineFest09.asp or by FAC Box Office at 719-634-5583.

Russ was particularly crowing about the Saturday morning event, sponsored by Whole Foods, where experts have selected 12 cheeses to pair with 6 wines. I highly recommend this event. You can read all about it on the attachment.

We’re committed to being active community partners. We endorse & support the following charities & non-profit organizations. In spite of challenging financial times, we hope you’ll remember the financial needs of your favorite charity or non-profit. If you don’t have one, these guys could use your help. They add significant value to our community & quality of life.

The Salvation Army: Feeding 52,000 people every year.
The Red Cross: They provide emergency assistance at every disaster in the Pikes Peak region
The Boy Scouts: Assisting 10,000 kids in the Pikes Peak Region, they nurture young men into responsible adults.
The United Way: Everybody’s partner in funding non-profits.
Chamber of Commerce: The business community’s voice in local politics.
Economic Development Committee: Helping the city grow jobs and employment.

Want to know more? Contact me at Tim@HoffLeigh.com

Have a profitable week!



Sincerely,

TJL
Tim Leigh
719-337-9551
Tim@HoffLeigh.com


To view our Office Matrix List please click below
http://hoffleigh.com/OfficeInsider.aspx

To view our Industrial Matrix List please click below
http://hoffleigh.com/IndustrialInsider.aspx

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